13.007 Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts...

[sonshi]

Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts and spirits; it cannot be inferred from comparison of previous events, or from the calculations of the heavens, but must be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation.

[RickMatz]

Originally posted by sonshi
Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts and spirits; it cannot be inferred from comparison of previous events, or from the calculations of the heavens, but must be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation.

Gathering data is one step. Interpreting it is another.

Best Regards,

Rick Matz

[HALBLEU]

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Originally posted by sonshi
Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts and spirits; it cannot be inferred from comparison of previous events, or from the calculations of the heavens, but must be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation.
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Proper Intelligence Gathering is all about getting data from the experts who is there now.

[Cardinal999]

Under the Carter Administration,
the Director of the CIA did not believe in having spies in
the enemy camp.

He believed in using the satellites as the prime method
of gathering intelligence.

And I am sure some of you knew what happen to the
US embassy in 1979 that blew that belief away.
.
Regardless, technology is only a tool. It will never beat
the placement of a spy being at the enemy camp, making
reports to HQ.

[Unregistered]

I have long wondered why Sun Tzu placed his first chapter, titled 'Estimates', and his last chapter, titled 'Employment of Spies', so far apart.

I think, and I freely concede I may be wrong here, that if one views the Art of War as a unified text of strategy whose teachings are seamlessly interwoven throughout, then it very well may be that Sun Tzu placed his last Chapter on the use of spies, precisely because he viewed it as the foremost critical chapter of all. Certainly, one could argue that Chapter 13 is a "foundational" chapter.

Recall that Sun Tzu places great emphasis on a Wise General achieving clear perception of complex events. At the same time, Master Wu asserts that a wise General possess uncommon wisdom. Now, in the extant excerpt above, we can readily see that Sun Tzu felt that critical information about an enemy can only be obtained through spies. Thus, it seems to this observer that according to Sun Tzu, if one wants to have any hope of formulating accurate estimates of the enemies' capabilities and intentions, the single best source of intelligence is from spying.

Now, having said all of that, I do not agree with The Sun Tzu's suggestion that foreknowledge cannot be obtained from an observation and comparision of previous events. In large measure, the actions and reactions of most nations and people can in fact be predicted based on an in-depth understanding and application of human nature. I am not saying that in every instance the intentions of a foe can be predicted 100% of the time, but I am suggesting that there is something to be said for the notion of expected probabilities as it relates to human behaviour.

There is a perfect unity and completeness to The Art of War that makes it a text for waging war and for waging peace. In this respect the Art of War is reality.

This is why the teachings and strategems in The Art of War are every bit as applicable when dealing on the macro level between nation-states, or on the micro level between two individuals.

This inherent duality of the Art of War and its all-encompassing teachings embrace the experiences of mankind like a massive, perfect circle. Thus, there is no "last chapter" to the Art of War in the traditional sense because chapter 13 dealing with the use of spies, is inextricably linked to chapter one on Estimates.

Like a circle, there is no beginning and no end to The Art of War.

The Art of War just is.

-BingFa:cool:

[Cardinal999]

Foreknowledge is all about 1st hand insight and a deep understanding of what your opposition is all about: its strengths, its weaknesses, its objective, its strategy, its people, etc.

[Maven]

"Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts and spirits;

it cannot be inferred from comparison of previous events, or from the calculations of the heavens, but must be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation."

Truly one cannot rely on supersitions such as astrology, etc. in obtaining knowledge. Knowledge comes from dedication to seeking the truth.

[Cardinal999]

The best defense is a good intelligence database that is updated with good sigtel (signal intelligence) and humint (human intelligence) instantly.

[gonzo]

Past actions will not help you to PREDICT what your opponent is going to do. Knowing his situation, and better yet, knowing what he WILL do is the key to an easy victory.

Gonzo

[HALBLEU]

Advance knowledge can only be gained by professional spies who has insight to the enemy's true situation.

[dudzcom]

i feel that this verse is written by sun tzu strictly based on the times in which he lived. simply put, this was a time when the ideas expressed in this text were revolutionary; these people knew nothing of what we consider common military sense. it is in this understanding that sun tzu attempts to dispel the idea of oracles to provide insight on a battle.

[SunZulu]

Sun Tzu said, "Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts and spirits; it cannot be inferred from comparison of previous events, or from the calculations of the heavens, but must be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation."

The general knows that intelligence needs to come from people. There are numerous methods and technologies used to gather intelligence but without the connection to the relationships of the people the information would be useless.

[fenriz]

This quote indicates to me that Sun Tzu was probably an atheist and had an almost Carl Sagan-like contempt for pseudo-science. A belief in "divine guidance" has no place in the decision-making process of war.

This quote also brings to mind a scene from a movie that I recently saw called "Deterrence." In the film, the President of the United States (played by Kevin Pollak) is confronting an international incident that could possibly have apocalyptic consequences. One of the characters in the movie brings up the issue of religion to the President to which he replies that he is an atheist. He further adds that once a man becomes President he cannot afford to let ideas about destiny or an after-life cloud his decisions that will possibly affect millions of people.

[Truthseeker]

Originally posted by sonshi
Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts and spirits; it cannot be inferred from comparison of previous events, or from the calculations of the heavens, but must be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation.

Speculation is not foreknowledge. Wishful thinking is not foreknowledge. A positive mental attitude is not foreknowledge. Information procured from those who are intimately familiar with our enemy is foreknowledge.

[pawn12]

Unknown quantities need to be considered as being dangerous in competitive enviroments.

In a theoretical univerese of perfect information. One could easily make logical decisions regarding conflict and their logical projected conclusions.

Enlisting the aids of master strategic texts like this one would further improve one acumen in making these decisions. Conflict would become more like algebra. Where unlnown quantities would be assigned values. Conlict equations would be created and accurate results would ensue.

Unfortunately in our current enviroment perfect information let alone knowldge or wisdom can be more scarce. This provides us with an opportunity to enlist spies to aid us in the preparation of perfect information with which to use the logic AoW to come to reasonable and successful conclusions.

Pawn12

[magenta11]

nice, very nice indeed...

Although I think I would put down my focal lense away from this paragraph and sum up the value of the last book as a whole.

Nice and valid points by everyone, and I think everyone is right.

Hmm...


May be I'll forgo my schedule for the day for this...


Thanks and Kudos for everyone~

[a_ponderer]

Foreknowledge should be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation.
Such people can be: experts, locals, friends, family, employers, employees, co-workers. Each one can provide vital information.

[Yin]

Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts and spirits; it cannot be inferred from comparison of previous events, or from the calculations of the heavens, but must be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation.

Seeing is the job of the eyes.. To expand the sight one employs spies

:tweep: